Bram Cohen ([info]bramcohen) wrote,
@ 2005-09-01 10:33:00
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Katrina
Katrina has passed, and New Orleans got lucky. The city is merely devastated, as opposed to completely permanently destroyed.

Now the city will rebuild, and will remain standing until, inevitably, a flood or hurricane or plain old silt build-up destoy it. Building anything in New Orleans is economically unjustifiable when one takes into account the inevitability of its destruction, to say nothing of the risk of the occupants getting killed, but anything short of the city's complete annihilation won't force people to realize that.

People forget that there was an earlier world trade center attack, one which merely took out the basement. After that attack is was quite clear that there could be another one, and that another attack could easily take out the buildings completely. The clearly justified response would have been to abandon the buildings. But that would have required the sort of risk analysis and forethought which we humans are incapable of doing in large numbers.

One also wonders how large a federal bailout of private insurance companies we'll have this time. 'Moral hazard' is a fashionable theory for setting policy, unless it applies to a large private company and a 'one time event' in which case we need to make life easy on the poor widdle executives, who could hardly see it coming.



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[info]afree87
2005-08-30 06:13 pm UTC (link)
You don't run the world based on whether things are "economically justifiable". There are more important things than economics.

At least, there ought to be.

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[info]bramcohen
2005-08-30 06:21 pm UTC (link)
Do you have some compelling social reason why people might want to live in an area where the entire city will inevitably be destroyed, or are you just having a knee-jerk reaction to someone citing that evil concept of economics?

(Reply to this) (Parent)(Thread)

(no subject) - [info]afree87, 2005-08-30 06:25 pm UTC
(no subject) - [info]bramcohen, 2005-08-30 06:29 pm UTC
(no subject) - [info]randallsquared, 2005-08-31 12:27 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]bramcohen, 2005-08-31 04:11 pm UTC
Youre not thinking fourth dimensionally! - [info]stevertigo, 2005-09-08 11:38 pm UTC

[info]st_arbirix
2005-08-30 06:14 pm UTC (link)
I get where you're coming from. I'm in SC but a friend of mine had his server parked on the network of a company hosted out of New Orleans. The server went offline yesterday morning at around 4am.

On the one hand: free hosting! But on the other, we're all in Clemson, SC, a town tucked in the mountains with a university that sells hosting at amazingly low prices at disgustingly fast speeds.

He's in a situation where he had been encouraging all his friends to store their files and whatnot on his server for free and now that server has disappeared. I don't think too many people will hold it against him, it being a charity and all, but I've always thought the idea to host anything out of New Orleans was a bad idea.

I had been backing up the data several of my friends hosted there for some time now. When I give it back to them I have to explain why I did what I did without sounding like a complete ass. I get the feeling many of my friends are the types who build $1,000,000 houses on the beaches in NC that are constantly being ravaged by hurricanes.

What're the chances they'll actually rebuild parts of New Orleans with things made to survive flooding? I'm not sure many even consider needing things to survive when insurance will bail them out and the government bails insurance out, so I'm betting in the range from 0 to 1/∞.

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[info]bramcohen
2005-08-30 06:26 pm UTC (link)
I'm not an expert, but given the distribution of hurricanes which wash up on shore I think that for New Orleans to be 'reasonably' shielded against likely hurricanes you'd need the homes to be able to survive 170 mph winds followed by 30 feet of flooding.

Clearly people don't consider such things when building houses. The only way the city could ever move would be for the state to flatly declare that the city had to move, and pull the plug on all public services.

(Reply to this) (Parent)


[info]piehead
2005-08-30 06:27 pm UTC (link)
The first step would likely be "fill the city at least up to sea level." See also, building Seattle up past sea level: http://away.com/primedia/pol_soc/underground_1.html

(Reply to this) (Parent)(Thread)

(no subject) - [info]7leaguebootdisk, 2005-08-30 10:24 pm UTC
(no subject) - [info]wazm, 2005-08-30 11:35 pm UTC

[info]coderman
2005-08-30 07:22 pm UTC (link)
I get the feeling many of my friends are the types who build $1,000,000 houses on the beaches in NC that are constantly being ravaged by hurricanes.

and the city/county continually rebuilds them. again and again. with taxpayer money. this used to amaze me when i lived in SC. how many times does it take to get a hint? :)

at least every time someone from these states starts talking about federal disaster insurance it gets shot down. why should everyone subsidize the stupidity of the rich and few?

(Reply to this) (Parent)(Thread)

(no subject) - [info]coderman, 2005-08-31 01:46 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]fl1pper, 2005-10-18 11:14 am UTC
WTC
[info]無 [wronka.org]
2005-08-30 06:26 pm UTC (link)
People forget that there was an earlier world trade center attack, one which merely took out the basement. After that attack is was quite clear that there could be another one, and that another attack could easily take out the buildings completely. The clearly justified response would have been to abandon the buildings. But that would have required the sort of risk analysis and forethought which we humans are incapable of doing in large numbers.


How does abandoning the buildings become a 'clearly justified response'? Any building could be a target, and any building could be destroyed--should all buildings be abandoned? The cost of relocating, the cost invested in the buildings, and the benefits they provided should not have been abandoned only because there was a chance something might happen. Even if the businesses in the building were relocated, another target would then be 'at risk'. There was nothing that would make the WTC a significantly easier target than anything else.

If people made decisions based on the fact that something might happen, then nothing would get done, because theoretically there is always something that could happen that would be bad.

(Reply to this) (Thread)

Re: WTC
[info]bramcohen
2005-08-30 06:35 pm UTC (link)
The WTC was both a uniquely compelling draw of terrorist activity and a uniquely convenient target to take out all at once (in the united states anyway, third world countries seem hell-bend on making giant buildings which might as well have 'shoot me' signs on them). In actual point of fact, most of the businesses which were in the WTC (the ones which weren't completely destroyed) have moved, and no even vaguely equivalent target has resulted. When doing risk analysis, it's important to look at chances of something happening, damage resulting, and benefits of keeping the thing as it is. The WTC lost out on the combination of those by orders of magnitude.

(Reply to this) (Parent)(Thread)

Re: WTC - [info]fleetfootedfox, 2005-08-30 08:42 pm UTC
Re: WTC - [info]bramcohen, 2005-08-31 04:13 pm UTC
Re: WTC - [info]fleetfootedfox, 2005-08-31 04:19 pm UTC
Re: WTC - [info]bramcohen, 2005-08-31 11:46 pm UTC
Re: WTC - [info]fleetfootedfox, 2005-09-01 02:29 am UTC
Re: WTC - [info]grim_thing, 2005-09-16 05:14 am UTC

[info]bramcohen
2005-08-30 06:45 pm UTC (link)
Seattle has quite the history of atrocious civil engineering, continuing to the present day.

In the case of New Orleans, that would involve raising the city to above the tops of the vast mojority of extant buildings. At that point, you're far better off rebuilding it elsewhere. Somewhere not flanked on three sides by the mississippi might be a good idea.

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[info]fleetfootedfox
2005-08-30 08:03 pm UTC (link)
a port city will always exist at the mouth of a river that serves an entire continent. you could relocate New Orlleans and another city would spring up in its place.

(Reply to this) (Parent)(Thread)

(no subject) - [info]7leaguebootdisk, 2005-08-30 10:26 pm UTC
(no subject) - [info]fleetfootedfox, 2005-08-31 11:45 am UTC

(Deleted post)
(no subject) - [info]fleetfootedfox, 2005-08-31 02:41 pm UTC
(no subject) - [info]lordspaz, 2005-08-31 02:32 pm UTC
(no subject) - [info]fleetfootedfox, 2005-08-31 02:54 pm UTC

[info]locokamil
2005-08-30 07:19 pm UTC (link)
Could it not be argued that New Orleans’ current location, in conjunction with its history and unique culture allows it to generate far more revenue every year than it would be able to do in any other location? Could also not be further argued that this revenue makes up for the occasional catastrophe of Katrina’s magnitude?

If we are to judge the merits of the city’s location in purely economic terms, we should not look simply at the costs, but at the benefits as well. It may well turn out that there is a net benefit to be had by situating the city in what seems to be a highly precarious location.

The key here to realize that a disaster of Katrina’s proportions only occurs once in a very long while. Were they to happen much more frequently, perhaps the cost-benefit analysis would shift and yes, in the long run, it would make sense to contradict the evolved wisdom of generations of urban growth and start over elsewhere.

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[info]bramcohen
2005-08-30 07:27 pm UTC (link)
Given that New Orleans is one of the poorest cities is the counttry, it's hard to argue that the city has much entrenched economic value beyond the houses which happen to be standing. Or which did happen to be standing. A bad hit like this one is a good time to give up.

(Reply to this) (Parent)(Thread)

(no subject) - [info]jezel, 2005-08-30 07:53 pm UTC
(no subject) - [info]madrid, 2005-08-30 08:36 pm UTC
(no subject) - [info]ryanlrussell, 2005-08-30 09:17 pm UTC
(no subject) - [info]bramcohen, 2005-08-31 11:22 pm UTC
(no subject) - [info]fleetfootedfox, 2005-09-01 12:21 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]bramcohen, 2005-09-01 01:26 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]fleetfootedfox, 2005-09-01 12:46 pm UTC
(no subject) - [info]bramcohen, 2005-09-01 04:09 pm UTC
(no subject) - [info]fleetfootedfox, 2005-09-01 04:25 pm UTC

[info]kirtakat
2005-08-30 08:25 pm UTC (link)
I'm going to have to respectfully disagree.

First off I think you are overlooking exactly how massive an undertaking it would be to declare New Orleans CONDEMMED and move everyone somewhere else. As a metropolitan area it's population is almost 1.5 million people. Where exactly are you going to put all those people? They would all be displaced by the "closing" of New Orleans leaving them essentially homeless. Restitution for their condemmed housing would (most likely) take many months to come leaving them not only homeless, but also flat broke without a job, because you're also closing their places of work.

So now you have a homeless population of 1.5 million and one condemed city. Do you want to build another city? First off there really aren't a lot of places to put a city in that part of Louisiana, second off something as massive as building a new city has not been attempted in America in a very long time. It would be an undertaking more massive then the rebuilding of Chicago after the fire, with a requirement for labor that would be astronomical (perhaps a use for all those homeless out of work residents?).

As expensive as it will be, repairing New Orleans will be significantly cheaper than building a Neo Orelans would. Not to mention the fact that the New Orleans port is one of the primary places where oil is unloaded into the US, meaning that the disruption to the US economy would ripple out in the form of higher gas costs, which result in higher merchendise costs (shipping..), which results in the devaluation of the doller (i.e. inflation).

Ideally they would rebuild the city, but honestly, that's not really an option.

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[info]bramcohen
2005-08-31 11:56 pm UTC (link)
One could easily argue for not rebuilding the city and simply have all the residents of New Orleans move to already established cities. Places with better job prospects and less obesity might be a good idea. I don't have a strong opinion about which is the right approach to take, and what the optimal location for a new new orleans would be. What is very clear is that keeping new orleans in its current location is clearly unjustified.

The immediate costs of abandoning the city are certainly significant, but to not take them on now leads to inevitable larger losses in the future. Abandoning the city may be 'not really an option' from a political/practical standpoint, but it's clearly the right thing to do, and would be the clear course of action if we were a species which instinctively took long-term risks into account.

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(no subject) - [info]kirtakat, 2005-09-01 03:00 pm UTC
(no subject) - [info]bramcohen, 2005-09-01 05:50 pm UTC
man-made vs the actual
(Anonymous)
2005-08-30 11:18 pm UTC (link)
You obliterate an important distinction -- weather is a *natural* phenomenon which is presently unalterable, the muslim philosophy's war against human values and man's happiness on earth is a *man-made* phenomenon (although in this instance regarding them as men is a bit too generous) which is unjustifiable and preventable.

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Re: man-made vs the actual
[info]bramcohen
2005-08-31 11:38 pm UTC (link)
So people killed by other humans aren't actually dead? And houses knocked down by them aren't actually destroyed?

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[info]flipzagging
2005-08-31 12:32 am UTC (link)
There's a good article on moral hazard in the current New Yorker. It is in the context of health insurance, where the concept of moral hazard seems pretty dubious. One can argue people have a choice of where to live, but not so easily one's economic class or genetic inheritance, which also affect health.

I am a bit shocked to turn on the TV and see talking heads immediately discussing the notion that people were just dumb to live in NO. Maybe, but that's not exactly the point any more.

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[info]bramcohen
2005-09-01 12:00 am UTC (link)
If people were so dumb to live there, how were those talking heads not dumb for not saying that the city should be abandoned in advance? I for one have been saying that the city was doomed for years, but with no political or economic leaders saying that people should avoid the city, it's ridiculous to say that the very poor people living in new orleans should have figured out the risks for themselves and moved out.

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(no subject) - [info]flipzagging, 2005-09-01 12:17 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]bramcohen, 2005-09-01 01:21 am UTC
Bram, How'd you do that?
[info]paulaandandrew
2005-08-31 12:41 am UTC (link)
How do you manage to post on Thursday at 10:33 AM? Where are you, anyway?

I find the dispassionate analysis of the literal and actual situation of New Orleans a very interesting discussion. Practically no one has mentioned the historical significance of said highlights of culture as Venice.


What about Seattle and the potential for mud flows which will happen there?
Or SanDiego and the fact that much of the "desirable" real estate is virtually at sea level? Honolulu? Miami, hell, most of Florida?

Ahh, hubris in rosy hindsight to have established cities in such precarious places.

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Re: Bram, How'd you do that?
[info]bramcohen
2005-09-01 12:11 am UTC (link)
How do you manage to post on Thursday at 10:33 AM? Where are you, anyway?

I'm in the san francisco area.

Practically no one has mentioned the historical significance of said highlights of culture as Venice.

It's been mentioned in the discussion, and there is real loss when any city gets abandoned, but it's important to do a real cost/benefit analysis, and not simply say that intangible benefits are worth any cost, as some of the knockleheads posting have basically stated.

What about Seattle and the potential for mud flows which will happen there?
Or SanDiego and the fact that much of the "desirable" real estate is virtually at sea level? Honolulu? Miami, hell, most of Florida?


The long-term risk to all of those cities should be considered seriously, although my understanding is that new orleans was/is in a class by itself in the stupid places to have a city category.

Ahh, hubris in rosy hindsight to have established cities in such precarious places.

Seattle for one was already destroyed once and rebuilt. Quite the hotbed of civil engineering, that place.

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Ludicrous
(Anonymous)
2005-08-31 08:31 am UTC (link)
So, by your same absurd logic we should abandon all tall government buildings in all city centers since they too might be bombed. Stick to what you know - non-anonymous file trading protocols.

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Re: Ludicrous
[info]bramcohen
2005-09-01 12:11 am UTC (link)
There's this thing called 'risk analysis'. You might benefit from learning about it, asshole.

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(Anonymous)
2005-08-31 05:27 pm UTC (link)
Cars suffer accidents all the time. Some are more likely than others. Does that mean that the "clearly justified response" would be to abandon driving all together?

"inevitability of its destruction"... thanks bram-stradamus. I think that every single place on earth falls under this category since it's only a matter of time until something bad happens... nuclear war, global warming.. heck even a massive meteor could wipe us out. i guess the "clearly justified response" to that would be for all of us to just commit suicide so that we can avoid "the inevitability of our destruction".

your stupidity is quite amazing.

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[info]bramcohen
2005-09-01 12:13 am UTC (link)
There's this thing called 'risk analysis' you might want to learn about. If you don't believe in probability, you might want to go test your theories in Vegas, asshole.

(Reply to this) (Parent)

re: Katrina
[info]peruano
2005-09-02 11:27 pm UTC (link)
I agree with you that sometimes people build cities in the worst places (like next to a Volcano). A risk/re-build cost analysis may show that the most logical solution is in fact to abandon the entire city - that I may agree with... Even though you are not taking in consideration the psychological impact of such a decision on the population (the city's and U.S.' as a whole).

But from there, to say that the entire WTC should have been evacuated because of the previous terrorist attack... well, I think that is a little bit off. Even in the event that risk-analysis told you that the buildings were in danger, the most obvious solution (besides the radical option of leaving the entire WTC) would have been to increase security. How the hell does anyone take into account multiple planes crashing againts it?!?! You may arguably say that a good analysis should... maybe now we know that now... but then?!?!?... mmm... I guess that is the forethought that you mention.

But if we do follow your logic, then many of the places that are considered high-danger zones of terrorist attacks should be evacuated/left empty, too. Disneyland should not exist, Universal Studios, the Staples Center (sorry, I am in SoCal as you may have guessed), basically any sort of location where too much people gather for whatever reason. Heck, that unto itself has a big economical impact.

I guess I am not completely convinced about your second paragraph...

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FROM:Pot TO:Kettle RE:Black
[info]decahex
2005-09-08 12:41 pm UTC (link)
I totally agree with Bram.

On a related note, San Franciscans must not be up on their risk analysis either.
Really, its as easy as counting up to M10.

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[info]pmb
2005-09-11 04:40 am UTC (link)
The best analysis of why New Orleans exists and should continue to exist that I have found is at http://www.stratfor.com/news/archive/050903-geopolitics_katrina.php

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[info]dogofjustice
2005-09-17 03:22 am UTC (link)
I think your hindsight suggestion regarding the WTC is lunacy. Leave such huge buildings to rot just because of a garage bomb??!!! This is like ridiculously "weak-tight" poker play, except for much larger stakes. What the hell do you think the Muslim extremist reaction would be to such an abandonment? "Discouragement" certainly does not come to the top of my mental list of relevant adjectives here.

On the other hand, we aren't playing poker with hurricanes, or the Mississippi River. I agree with your suggestion re: New Orleans.

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