Bram Cohen ([info]bramcohen) wrote,
@ 2008-11-14 16:17:00
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Steam in the mortgage market
In horse race betting there's a concept called 'steam'. A once-popular way of scamming a local off track betting place was to go to an actual horserace, bet big on a guaranteed loser horse, then go to an off track betting place and place a yet even bigger bet on the horse which was likely to win. Because off track betting placed didn't used to routinely use the same pool as at the track, they'd simply mimic the odds add the track, and by using steam you could induce them to place an extremely unfavorable bet.

What does this have to do with the mortgage market? Well, as it happens the credit default swap market is many times the size of the actual mortgage market. How'd that happen? Well, overzealous investors ran out of actual mortgages to invest in, so they simply started placing side bets on how the mortgage market would do, totally many times how big the actual market underneath is. AIG is in a position of being the biggest insurer of the garbage. These two facts put together make for an interesting possible scenario. Since the amount of money on the line is greater than the actual size of the underlying market, AIG could potentially agree to cover every mortgage company's loss in any short sale (a short sale is where the mortgage company agrees to forgive part of a loan to make a sale happen, as a way of avoiding forecloser). That would immediately result in the number of foreclosures being near zero, and AIG would magically have made it so it didn't have to pay out on any of its side bets.

Chances are that the numbers don't work out for this to be a winning proposition. Maybe the CDO insurance industry as a whole, rather than just the largest player, could manage to get away with it. In any case, it sure would be funny.



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CDOs
[info]orange4aks
2008-11-15 03:16 am UTC (link)
I was talking with a MBA classmate of mine this week, he's an insurance broker who utilizes AIG insurance products for clients. Apparently the AIG insurance subsidiaries are all well capitalized and in good shape (highly regulated) - only the parent company's financial engineering shenanigans with mortgages have them in trouble. Interesting.

I agree with your last statement that the industry as a whole would have to go in on it, basically completely covering their liabilities globally and retire all outstanding paper obligations. Doubt anyone has the guts to pull it together, and there are winners out there, somewhere, hiding - they wouldn't want to play.

A real problem with real estate asset debt is that much of it is very long-term, and with the refinancings (FDIC is proposing that 40-yr mortgages (or longer with forbearance) replace the toxic that homeowners can't afford now), the physical property and ground/air rights are going to have very different values over that length of time. Global warming is going to impact the practical value of much of the highest value property. When energy costs double or triple, a McMansion without efficiency design or features won't be desirable.

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Re: CDOs
[info]trs80 [typekey.com]
2008-11-15 06:51 am UTC (link)
A winner (arguably) is Steve Eisman - http://www.portfolio.com/news-markets/national-news/portfolio/2008/11/11/The-End-of-Wall-Streets-Boom?page=0

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[info]gordwick
2009-02-02 05:05 pm UTC (link)
Being an active mortgage broker is not an easy thing because the very mortgage environment is a big challenge these days. I actually find twisted and as a regular citizen I can't face it by myself. I made my plans to buy a new home, I reviewed a mortgage calculator, besides all this I'll have to accept help from a good mortgage broker this would increase my chances for making good choices.

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Sheer Madness!
[info]flmortgagepro
2009-03-08 05:04 am UTC (link)
Bram - sorry to have caught this post well into 2009, but it sure does speak directly to the madness we're fighting through today. I'm here in Florida, and we're still reeling from the shy-"locking" we took when the housing market went south.

Me? I'm trying my best as a Florida mortgage broker to educate folks and help them make wise and - more importantly - prudent financial decisions. We'll get there. Just gonna take some time.

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